Rahmstorf, August 28th, 2025: "I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports: for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.
Our paper on that is out today.🧵
Only a few models have continued intermediate or low emission scenarios beyond the year 2100. In some of them the #AMOC shuts down as well. So even for low emissions (compatible with the Paris agreement) we are not safe. But the risk is much smaller.
We estimate the probability of shutdown as 70% for high emissions and 25% for low emissions based on the CMIP6 models.
These are rough estimates, but main point is: this is a risk that I used to consider <10%, and given the devastating impacts lasting many centuries we really want this to be <1%.
➡ Our paper is open access here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
Are you interested in the #AMOC?
➡ My popular article in Oceanography magazine: https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point
➡ My recent talk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA
" - Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf on Bluesky (source: threads https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhvreyjms2u and https://bsky.app/profile/rahmstorf.bsky.social/post/3lxhyrlmfgs2u )
