In a recent BESS auction the 4 hour systems segment the average bid was ~$60/kWh (https://www.mercomindia.com/china-record-low-tariff-battery-storage-auction)
In June 2023 NREL projected cost reductions of 4 hour BESS based on a 2022 benchmark. (https://www.energy-storage.news/li-ion-bess-costs-could-fall-47-by-2030-nrel-says-in-long-term-forecast-update/)
The red dot on the plot shows where the Chinese bids fall against NREL's projections.
Assuming I haven't bolloxed my like-with-like assumptions it looks like the industry analysts are making the same mistake with batteries that they did with solar.
