"- OpenAI and Anthropic both lose billions of dollars a year after revenue, and their stories do not mirror any other startup in history, not Uber, not Amazon Web Services, nothing. I address the Uber point in this article.
- SoftBank is putting itself in dire straits simply to fund OpenAI once. This deal threatens its credit rating, with SoftBank having to take on what will be multiple loans to fund the remaining $30 billion of OpenAI's $40 billion round, which has yet to close and OpenAI is, in fact, still raising.
- This is before you consider the other $19 billion that SoftBank has agreed to contribute to the Stargate data center project, money that it does not currently have available.
- OpenAI has promised $19 billion to the Stargate data center project, money it does not have and cannot get without SoftBank's funds.
- Again, neither SoftBank nor OpenAI has the money for Stargate right now.
- OpenAI must convert to a for-profit by the end of 2025, or it loses $20 billion of the remaining $30 billion of funding. If it does not convert by October 2026, its current funding converts to debt. It is demanding remarkable, unreasonable concessions from Microsoft, which is refusing to budge and is willing to walk away from the negotiations necessary to convert.
- OpenAI does not have a path to profitability, and its future, like Anthropic's, is dependent on a continual flow of capital from venture capitalists and big tech, who must also continue to expand infrastructure.
Anthropic is in a similar, but slightly better position — it is set to lose $3 billion this year on $4 billion of revenue. It also has no path to profitability, recently jacked up prices on Cursor, its largest customer, and had to put restraints on Claude Code after allowing users to burn 100% to 10,000% of their revenue. These are the actions of a desperate company."
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/
#AI#GenerativeAI#OpenAI#Anthropic#ChatGPT#Claude#AIBubble#AIHype#SoftBank#StarGate
