When will there be AI superintelligence?
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@evan
The 10th of Neveruary.
@evan
Later... Much later.
@evan
In the context of "AI = LLM", never. In context of "AI = whatever we will find as technology" we will need decades to have the technology to simulate at least a simple brain (much simpler than a human brain).
The reason is that the neural networks that we map in silicon today make up only a fraction of a brain. Countless elements that make up our thinking, our consciousness, and our self-awareness are missing. Even our senses, which are necessary for these, can currently only be represented in a rudimentary way.
Currently, we only emulate knowledge through high speed and parallelization. But we have clear limits in this regard with ressources.
And knowledge is not intelligence. It is also only simulated.
@evan There won't. It's all a scam.
Explain! What part is impossible?
You don't think it's possible for an entity to be more intelligent than a human?
Or is it not possible for a *constructed* entity to be more intelligent than a human?
Or are *humans* not smart enough to make a constructed entity that is more intelligent than a human?
@evan I don't think that it's possible for a glorified pile of linear algebra to think at all.
@evan define superintelligence? My first Athlon many years ago could do arithmetic a billion times faster than I could. Every computer and computer program is superhuman in some specific way, or we wouldn’t keep making them
@evan You mean superintelligent, as in smarter then us? Sadly, I think we're going to meet them somewhere in the middle.
@evan The planet will die first.
@boz because of all the water and the energy that AI uses?
@boz@mastodon.uno @evan@cosocial.ca
Pretty sure they mean like, in general
@boz@mastodon.uno @evan@cosocial.ca
Turning it to something more concrete: do you think AGI is achievable through the same base approach as current-day LLMs?
@evan It's impossible to answer this without specific definitions of "AI" and "superintelligence". If AI is something that can write text and draw pictures in a way that is superficially like human output, and superintelligence means that it can do that faster than a human, then we've got it already. If not, then the answer is some time between tomorrow and never, depending on those definitions.