Discussion
RE: https://mastodon.social/@heidilifeldman/117209346171417433
Great (as usual) thread by @heidilifeldman on the current status of the various cases challenging the administration's executive order on vote-by-mail.
Note that how / whether the exec order will affect mail voting in the midterms effectively rests entirely on procedural issues at this point. The merits haven't been addressed (or even fully briefed) yet, and won't be before November.
@mattblaze @heidilifeldman Surely part of the point of the EO, *even if not successfully implemented*, is to dispute the election's legitimacy. "We issued an order and the states didn't follow it, so the results are illegitimate" is the kind of thing Trump will say. And it'll play well with his base.
It won't stop newly elected members from being seated (unless it does, because there have been shenanigans around that in the recent past), but it's Fox News red meat, is the point.
And all this is setting aside the equally important problem that the database of citizens that these ballots are supposed to be checked against also doesn't exist in any coherent, reliable form.
In other words, no matter what the courts rule, the reality is that there is simply no way for this to happen before ballots go out for the November election. @heidilifeldman
So there are basically two ways for this to go, and I honestly have no idea which one it will be:
(sane option): Everyone recognizes that this can't happen, and the EO has no effect until the courts have ruled on the merits (after November)
(chaos option): USPS refuses to accept/deliver blank ballots in the coming weeks, despite having no mechanism for states to comply, and we end up in completely uncharted territory.
People saying "well counties can just do <something different> for the November election." No. There is no "just do" here at this point. Even a seemingly small change to election procedures, or a shift in the proportion of voters who vote a particular way, is a HUGE deal this close to an election.
Example: "Just tell voters to print their blank ballots at home". Aside from the fact that voter-printed ballots have different processing workflows, how many voters have printers?
Another wrinkle: North Carolina is starting to send out mail ballots TODAY, and it appears that the postal service is set to accept them (though that’s not certain). NC isn’t fully compliant with the new USPS rule, and won’t be through the election.
So now there’s the possibility that SOME voters will be able to receive mail-in ballots, but that the USPS will refuse to accept ballots sent later for others, raising an obvious equal protection issue. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/us/politics/north-carolina-mails-first-ballots-of-fall-as-trump-tries-to-restrict-them.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-lA.RGel.YWUyQqaEJvqu
Another thing that’s worth remembering here is that the EO (and new USPS rules) apply only to the mailing of BLANK ballot forms FROM election offices TO voters. There are no changes to any rules governing the return of marked ballots by mail. So once a voter has their ballot in hand, the EO ceases to be an issue for them. (But it would be prudent to mail it back to allow plenty of time for delivery before election day, and with correct postage. Or use a local drop box).
@heidilifeldman
A note on ballot drop boxes: this may or may not be obvious, but drop boxes are for LOCAL voters (those with ballots from the county/jurisdiction where the box is located), not for absentee voters traveling elsewhere. If you’re away from home, you need to return your ballot by mail, not in a drop box serving a different jurisdiction.
If you put your ballot in a “foreign” box, they might or might not be able to get it to your home county. But at best it will be delayed.
North Carolina apparently sent out its first batch of ballots yesterday, despite not being fully compliant with Trump's EO and the new postal regulations. So far I've heard no reports of the USPS refusing to accept them (but it's possible that news hasn't reached here yet).
Assuming they accepted them, that's a significant development. It suggests that the postal service is following the prelim injunction.
Hopefully voters get their ballots delivered uneventfully.
NC votes chiefly in person at local precincts; mail ballots are sent only to the fairly small fraction of NC voters who specifically request them. Friday's batches were for voters who had already asked for them, though the final deadline for doing so isn't until next month.
One thing about the USPS's apparent acceptance of NC's first batch of ballots: this creates a new fact in the case that's probably going to be helpful to the plaintiffs (for this election). The USPS has now accepted "non compliant" ballot mailings for some voters. (And compliance is effectively impossible at this point).
If the USPS later starts refusing ballots, SOME voters will have been allowed to receive mail ballots, while others will have been denied them.
The first batches of mail-in ballots from North Carolina were apparently accepted by the USPS on Friday (sent only to voters who had requested them), despite Trump's contested executive order and new USPS regulations.
Is anyone here a mail-in voter from NC? Have you received your ballot yet? They should start arriving this week.
Update: it looks like NC ballots are starting to be delivered, which is good news all around.
@mattblaze @heidilifeldman If Republicans can't claim victory in the mid-terms with some veneer of legitimacy, such as by making outrageously false claims of voter fraud and/or "rigging" to their dwindling base - as they've already done - then they'll just resort to force. I hope Americans are ready for it.
Everyone else seems to be appalled by Trump's treatment of the military. I'm more circumspect, 'cos it means Trump is eroding yet another pillar of his support. He may yet need that bunker.
Install bonfire.cafe
Get the full app experience
@mattblaze @heidilifeldman just wanted to say "thank you" to both of you for the factual and informative posts about the election proceedings. It is highly appreciated and everybody interested in US elections should follow you!