So, on China time we should see them commisioned in 2030/31?. Maybe earlier as site prep started in early 2024. It will be interesting to see how fast they can get.
I think they have >35GW already under construction that should be completed at or before 2030 and more in the pipeline. China scale is breathtaking.
They are also deploying 500GW of Solar + Wind in 2025 alone, which at a conservative capacity factor would be equivalent to 75GW nuclear (as long as they can build enough storage or interment usages to avoid curtailment).
I think they'll have enough reliability/load management soon to really start shuttering coal plants.
... Or not. Napkin math says at current build rates and current utilisation growth rate (6.8%) they will be just behind the curve. But its very close, at the same build rate but 6.5% growth they will get ahead. I expect the build rate to increase, but its close (and AI datacentres may fuck everything up).
A space for Bonfire maintainers and contributors to communicate
