I ran several models. These are the two most likely outcomes.
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I'm not a betting person, but if you are... it's a bit less than the next thing to a coin toss, on Newcastle's side... 57% to 43%
But that's still an incredible amount of potential for Liverpool, compared to 0% of a few days ago.
In the model, the third most likely scenario was:
"Newcastle sell Isak to a non-PL club; Liverpool hold funds for a future marquee move"
If we consider all three most likely scenarios and normalise the numbers for proportional share, scenario 3 gets 21%, which is non-negligible, but far less likely than one of the other two most likely outcomes together.
This is my last roll of the dice.
S5 – NUFC keep Isak, sell other asset; LFC buy cheaper forward – 40.11%
S1 – NUFC sell Isak to LFC (structured deal) – 29.41%
S6 – NUFC sell Isak to non-PL club; LFC hold funds – 18.72%
S2 – NUFC sell Isak; LFC pass – 5.88%
S3 – NUFC keep Isak with big raise; LFC pass – 5.88%
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