Apparently, 100-120F is the sweet spot for saponification using "cold process" soap. However, it appears my lye water is lacking in proper amount of concentration, as this mass of oil refuses to saponify even with every last bit of lye I had in the bike tube.

It's now freezing out, and I sliced myself open (blood! blood! ahh!) trying to saw a tree branch, and if I'm that's clumsy in this cold, I'm not mixing up more lye 🤪 (will have to wait for more warmth and dexterity to return another day).

Also, the bike stem is not budging even hitting it with a hammer. So. Needs more lye soaking.