Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney published yesterday a preprint demonstrating that 2048-bit RSA encryption could theoretically be broken by a #quantum computer with 1 million noisy qubits running for one week.
This 20x decrease in estimated required ressources for quantum factoring comes from better algorithms and better error correction.
https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html