@aoanla @quixoticgeek I think both of you are correct, and to make sure we establish something more concrete here, I would model a simple #Bayesian ( #Markov) chain:
Helmet‑free → higher bike‑commute mode share → increased daily physical activity → lower incidence of rare cardiovascular disease
@quixoticgeek ...yes, but not a *direct* consequence. When people say "X causes Y", the implication is that the causal chain is short between X and Y.
I could say "stopping free school dinners increases crime", which is true as a weak effect due to opportunity limitation, but the consequence is years after the cause, and several chain links down the road... so I wouldn't say that without being clear that I mean indirectly and in the indefinite future.
@aoanla @quixoticgeek I think both of you are correct, and to make sure we establish something more concrete here, I would model a simple #Bayesian ( #Markov) chain:
Helmet‑free → higher bike‑commute mode share → increased daily physical activity → lower incidence of rare cardiovascular disease
