#Tag · bonfire.cafe

In short, once clean techs are in the money and the world starts going down the path of decarbonization, change won't be linear.

It never is.

Even the least ambitious Shell scenario reaches near-zero emissions by 2100(!)

Compare that to this collection of paths, pulling from IPCC, IEA, and Shell(!).

Forget the title for now and zero in on the paths.

There's IPCC SSP3-7.0 — NYT says that one won't happen. Good.

But more importantly, look at *all* the others, including Shell's most pessimistic.

@gwagner@fediscience.org replied · last week

In short, once clean techs are in the money and the world starts going down the path of decarbonization, change won't be linear.

It never is.

Even the least ambitious Shell scenario reaches near-zero emissions by 2100(!)

Electric two and three-wheel vehicles already account for 15% of the global stock and remain a huge growth market, particularly in India and other countries in Asia and Africa. Sales are expected to reach around 100 million in the next five years (see #iea Global #EV Outlook 2025, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-two-three-wheelers-stock-in-the-stated-policies-scenario-2024-2030 )

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