#LosAngeles #SanDiego #rain #flooding #CAwx

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1053 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180353Z - 180753Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues for at least 2-4 more
hours.

Discussion...A warm conveyor continues to spread moderate to heavy
rainfall into portions of southern California near the Los Angeles
basin and adjacent areas of the Transverse Ranges. Recent
observations suggest that 0.5 inch/hr rain rates were falling over
or very near burn scars just north of Los Angeles, suggesting
continued potential for excessive runoff and debris flows.
Mesoanalyses indicate a continued fetch of southwesterly 850mb
flow into the region oriented parallel to the coastal ranges,
supporting continued orographic enhancement of rain rates at
times. PW values near an inch and weak surface-based instability
also continue to support the convective nature of the activity and
locally heavy rain rates.

Models suggest that these rates will continue to impact burn scar
areas over the next 2-4 hours (through 07Z or so) while
translating slowly eastward. Flash flooding will remain a
possibility, though this risk should become more isolated with
time as rain rates are expected to gradually weaken.

Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1230 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1230&yr=2025

#cawx #wx

#LosAngeles #SanDiego #rain #flooding #CAwx

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1053 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180353Z - 180753Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues for at least 2-4 more
hours.

Discussion...A warm conveyor continues to spread moderate to heavy
rainfall into portions of southern California near the Los Angeles
basin and adjacent areas of the Transverse Ranges. Recent
observations suggest that 0.5 inch/hr rain rates were falling over
or very near burn scars just north of Los Angeles, suggesting
continued potential for excessive runoff and debris flows.
Mesoanalyses indicate a continued fetch of southwesterly 850mb
flow into the region oriented parallel to the coastal ranges,
supporting continued orographic enhancement of rain rates at
times. PW values near an inch and weak surface-based instability
also continue to support the convective nature of the activity and
locally heavy rain rates.

Models suggest that these rates will continue to impact burn scar
areas over the next 2-4 hours (through 07Z or so) while
translating slowly eastward. Flash flooding will remain a
possibility, though this risk should become more isolated with
time as rain rates are expected to gradually weaken.

Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1230 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1230&yr=2025

#cawx #wx

City of Santa Barbara

Monday November 17th, 2025 :: 12:08 p.m. PST

The storm has caused significant flooding at various locations throughout the City of Santa Barbara. Please drive carefully.

There was a signfiicant amount of rainfall over the past couple hours which caused various locations within the city to flood. Please refrain from driving through standing water and use extreme caution while driving throughout Santa Barbara. Please avoid the following locations as barricades are in place to ensure your safety and prevent damage to your vehicles:

-Cacique @ Quarantina
-Cacique @ Powers
-Calle Cesar Chavez @ Railroad tracks
-500 and 600 E. Gutierrez Street
-Salsipuedes Street south to Montecitio St.

https://local.nixle.com/alert/12004439/?sub_id=0

#CAwx #SantaBarbara #rain

City of Santa Barbara

Monday November 17th, 2025 :: 12:08 p.m. PST

The storm has caused significant flooding at various locations throughout the City of Santa Barbara. Please drive carefully.

There was a signfiicant amount of rainfall over the past couple hours which caused various locations within the city to flood. Please refrain from driving through standing water and use extreme caution while driving throughout Santa Barbara. Please avoid the following locations as barricades are in place to ensure your safety and prevent damage to your vehicles:

-Cacique @ Quarantina
-Cacique @ Powers
-Calle Cesar Chavez @ Railroad tracks
-500 and 600 E. Gutierrez Street
-Salsipuedes Street south to Montecitio St.

https://local.nixle.com/alert/12004439/?sub_id=0

#CAwx #SantaBarbara #rain

Long night ahead for 3 vehicles stuck south of the tunnels in Malibu Canyon. Stuck in a mud slide. Fire department unable to get out there.

11/15/25 1936PT

#Malibu #mudslide #rain #CAwx

(read wrong, only 3 cars)

#mudslide #malibu #rain #CAwx

CBS News: Sutter County man dies after vehicle swept off flooded road

"... a delivery driver arrived at Fifield Road west of Pleasant Grove Road and stopped at the bridge, which had about 2-3 feet of water flowing over the road from the recent rain.

A 71-year-old man, the recipient of the delivery, drove to the bridge in a 2016 Honda CX-5. Officers said he tried to cross the bridge, but the flowing water pushed the Mazda off the bridge and into the creek. .."

https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/sutter-county-man-dies-vehicle-swept-away-flooded-fifield-road/

#turnarounddontdrown #flooding #CAwx

Long night ahead for 3 vehicles stuck south of the tunnels in Malibu Canyon. Stuck in a mud slide. Fire department unable to get out there.

11/15/25 1936PT

#Malibu #mudslide #rain #CAwx

CBS News: Sutter County man dies after vehicle swept off flooded road

"... a delivery driver arrived at Fifield Road west of Pleasant Grove Road and stopped at the bridge, which had about 2-3 feet of water flowing over the road from the recent rain.

A 71-year-old man, the recipient of the delivery, drove to the bridge in a 2016 Honda CX-5. Officers said he tried to cross the bridge, but the flowing water pushed the Mazda off the bridge and into the creek. .."

https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/sutter-county-man-dies-vehicle-swept-away-flooded-fifield-road/

#turnarounddontdrown #flooding #CAwx

I am always curious if the single vehicle Tesla's losing control in the rain is because of the human driver, or "auto" driving. (One of the two does not know to slow down, a lot, especially in a vehicle with a lot of torque). Looks like the Tesla is DOA and it's stuck in lanes. They often get stuck and the owners unable to exit due to power loss. #rain #CAwx

Drive carefully, lots of bad accidents on the road today in the greater Los Angeles area. Here's someone trapped and pinned in a vehicle with fire/rescue about to arrive. 11/15/25 0753 #rain #CAwx

Expected impacts from this weekend's major SoCal storm--which now appears likely to feature widespread flood risk and also a few severe thunderstorms--continue to increase. I will have a blog post and YouTube livestream at a TBD time later today to discuss. #CAwx

Individual weather models, like recent ECMWF "operational" runs that indicate >10 inches of rainfall across SoCal over next 7 days (!), are still large outliers in their broader ensembles. But even the ensemble average would result in the wettest Nov in LA since the 1960s! #CAwx

Expected impacts from this weekend's major SoCal storm--which now appears likely to feature widespread flood risk and also a few severe thunderstorms--continue to increase. I will have a blog post and YouTube livestream at a TBD time later today to discuss. #CAwx

👀

"4.0 - 8.0 inches in mountains and hills"

#CAwx #rain

https://m.ai6yr.org/@nwslosangelesbot/115544890471739920

Rain is creeping up but not here yet, i feel ripped off. (i am not taking questions about Leisure World)

#CAWx

👀

"4.0 - 8.0 inches in mountains and hills"

#CAwx #rain

https://m.ai6yr.org/@nwslosangelesbot/115544890471739920

Interesting rain forecast from the local station.

#rain #CAwx

https://abc7.com/live-updates/southern-california-weather-storm-drench-los-angeles-orange-san-bernardino-riverside-ventura-counties/18148478/