#Tag · bonfire.cafe

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets

https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure

#HackerNews #Microstructure #Wealth #Transfer #PredictionMarkets #Research

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets

Slot machines on the Las Vegas Strip return about 93 cents on the dollar. This is widely considered some of the worst odds in gambling. Yet on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, traders have wagered vast sums on longshot contracts with historical returns as low as 43 cents on the dollar. Thousands of participants are voluntarily accepting expected values far lower than a casino slot machine to bet on their convictions.

The Japan Times

@thejapantimes@mastodon.social · last week

Wealth taxes are difficult to implement, risk reducing growth and capital and cannot solve the structural fiscal challenges facing aging societies and overpromising governments. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2026/01/12/world/wealth-taxes-dont-work/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #commentary #worldnews #wealth #taxes #rich #poverty #socialwelfare

Hacker News

@h4ckernews@mastodon.social · last month

How getting richer made teenagers less free

https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/how-getting-richer-made-teenagers

#HackerNews #HowGettingRicherMadeTeenagersLessFree #Teenagers #Freedom #Wealth #SocialIssues #EconomicImpact

How getting richer made teenagers less free

We value children more than ever. But we're suffocating them.

Yogthos boosted

kuchinster

@kuchinster@hub.hubzilla.de · last month

# economy # money # power # capitalism # wealth # poverty # infographics

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Woozle Hypertwin boosted

Emeritus Prof Christopher May

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us · 2 months ago

As Steve Downes argues on LinkedIn, when the rich bail out, what's often left is opportunities for others:

'...they don’t just “take their money” with them. They often free up economic energy for everyone else....

When very wealthy people leave, their assets do not vanish. Their property, companies, investments & leadership roles stay in the UK. And this creates real opportunities for others'!

A great bit of positive analysis rather than the usual gloom mongering!

#politics #wealth

1. Their property re-enters the market. Ultra-prime homes often sit underused. When the owner leaves, the property is sold or rented, making space for productive use, renovation, and taxation. The OECD notes that asset turnover improves economic efficiency and resource allocation.
2. Their businesses or senior roles are taken over by someone else. When a high-level position changes hands, it opens a path for new leadership, new ideas and new talent. Firms do not disappear because an owner relocates. They continue producing jobs, profits and taxes.
OBR explains that corporate activity remains tied to location, not the personal postcode of an individual.
3. Their investments change hands and become more dynamic. Wealth held in low-activity assets (like empty property or quietly held shares) is often released back into circulation when someone leaves. New owners put capital to work.
IFS research shows that wealth transfers and asset turnover boost productivity when capital is
4. Economic space becomes available. In many cases, a billionaire’s departure removes market bottlenecks. This can allow smaller firms to buy assets, expand, or hire. The economy thrives on competition and circulation, not hoarding.
The OECD calls this process ‘reallocation gains’.

[Alt text edited for word length - retaining the key elements] — 1. Their property re-enters the market. Ultra-prime homes often sit underused. When the owner leaves, the property is sold or rented, making space for productive use, renovation, and taxation. The OECD notes that asset turnover improves economic efficiency and resource allocation. 2. Their businesses or senior roles are taken over by someone else. When a high-level position changes hands, it opens a path for new leadership, new ideas and new talent. Firms do not disappear because an owner relocates. They continue producing jobs, profits and taxes. OBR explains that corporate activity remains tied to location, not the personal postcode of an individual. 3. Their investments change hands and become more dynamic. Wealth held in low-activity assets (like empty property or quietly held shares) is often released back into circulation when someone leaves. New owners put capital to work. IFS research shows that wealth transfers and asset turnover boost productivity when capital is 4. Economic space becomes available. In many cases, a billionaire’s departure removes market bottlenecks. This can allow smaller firms to buy assets, expand, or hire. The economy thrives on competition and circulation, not hoarding. The OECD calls this process ‘reallocation gains’. [Alt text edited for word length - retaining the key elements]

kuchinster

@kuchinster@hub.hubzilla.de · last month

# economy # money # power # capitalism # wealth # poverty # infographics

View

Emeritus Prof Christopher May

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us · 2 months ago

As Steve Downes argues on LinkedIn, when the rich bail out, what's often left is opportunities for others:

'...they don’t just “take their money” with them. They often free up economic energy for everyone else....

When very wealthy people leave, their assets do not vanish. Their property, companies, investments & leadership roles stay in the UK. And this creates real opportunities for others'!

A great bit of positive analysis rather than the usual gloom mongering!

#politics #wealth

The Japan Times

@thejapantimes@mastodon.social · 2 months ago

Nomura’s CEO has vowed to build on the company’s earnings revival by strengthening businesses across the board, ranging from wealth to asset management and dealmaking. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/12/02/companies/nomura-wealth-asset-management/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon #business #companies #nomura #brokerages #wealth

Hacker News

@h4ckernews@mastodon.social · 2 months ago

Norway wealth fund to vote for human rights report at Microsoft, against Nadella

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/30/norway-wealth-fund-to-vote-for-human-rights-report-at-microsoft-agm-against-management.html

#HackerNews #Norway #wealth #fund #human #rights #Microsoft #Nadella #AGM